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So far, the availability of MP3 files is less a boon to new artists than to established, familiar artists. Eighty-six percent of music downloaders have captured music they had heard before, by artists they were already familiar with. And 69% of music downloaders had searched for new music by artists they were already familiar with. Still, there are encouraging signs that online posting and marketing of music can work for new artists. Thirty-one percent of music downloaders had loaded songs onto their computers by an artist they had never heard before.
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Twenty-eight percent of music downloaders say captured music that they already own in another form (CD or tape) and 63% downloaded new music. This is a marked change from our June 2000 report, in which 13% of music downloaders said they captured music they already owned and 81% downloaded new music. Since the demographics of music downloaders have not shifted significantly in the last few months, it is possible that their behavior has changed. Music downloaders may be using services like Napster to expand their music collections and replace the music they own on old cassette tapes with new digital versions of the same material. Or, there is another possibility for this increase in the number of people reporting they have downloaded music they already owned in another form. More respondents may be giving what they perceive to be a legally safer answer to a question about the type of songs they download.
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The Movie Industry and Technology ProgressThe music and movie business has been consistently wrong in its claims that new platforms and channels would be the end of its businesses. In each case, the new technology produced a new market far larger than the impact it had on the existing market.
But efforts to persuade people to buy songs over the air have floundered in Europe and the US. "We estimate that less than one million tracks have been both paid for, then downloaded to mobile phones over the last year, despite this being a service offered by most of the UK's operators," said Mr Lee at Deloitte. That compares with the iTunes Music Store, which in June passed the 500 million songs mark after just two years' operation, and is expected to hit a billion in December.
Indeed, the ROKR - which cannot download songs on the air, and can store only 100 songs - is unlikely to be a hit in its own right. But Michael Gartenberg, an analyst for Jupiter Research, thinks the ROKR's lack of wow factor masks an important step: Apple has for the first time put its iTunes software and the software protection (or "DRM") that guards songs bought online on a non-Apple device - and a phone at that.
Well, there's two challenges, right? You have this challenge where you have technology at the beginning, and you go well, what can we prove with this? What kind of pilots and early on experiences, no holds barred art the possible, what can we do? And so, we used to take a bunch of our engineering staff and we would put them in rooms with customers, and they would do slam board sessions. In every ideation they would come out and do sketching. Like, it would be-- like, if you were an ad agency and you were doing a proposal for, like, you know, a shoe company or something, they would come out and do all the whiteboarding. And we would work with customers and, I mean, come up with these prototypes in a week of just saying, "Hey, is this...?" It wasn't even a minimally viable product at that point, it was still very, very much, like, framework to go around and say, "Hey, does this concept even connect the dots for you?" But you're right, and it's hard to convince software companies in market to say, hey, by the way, I need to borrow a bunch of your developers to go build something they've never built before, and by the way, they have no skills for. Probably not well trained. And, oh, by the way, I can't tell you what the market opportunity is for that. They're like, "Yeah, dude, just-- thanks a lot. You can go sell your stuff someplace else." There was a time there when a lot of the apps that we would demo were the ones that were out of the box on the device. Here's the kind of the art of the possible demo, you want to take it and run. And people would be, like, "Oh, I get it." Joining the team, that was the thing that was most amazing to me. They had such solid understanding of the vision, they had a mission, they knew exactly what they wanted to accomplish, but they weren't so constrained in the way in which they would accomplish it. And so, when you come to customers and partners, and you say, "Hey, here's this amazing technology, help us figure it out," man, did they sign up fast. They're like, "Yeah, I want to help you! Oh, my God, what do you mean you haven't already figured this out? You, Mr. Microsoft. Like how did you not already--" We have ideas, we have some thoughts, but we'd like to validate them with you. And that was the most engaging conversations. We would have some executive-- I mean, like a CEO, CFO, COO from some company, and they would just be as much involved as, like, one of their IT architects. One of the customers I worked with was in the fire safety business, and we had, like, the president of business with, like, a guy that worked with firefighters. Like, I don't know how many levels were between them, but they were both in the same room and as participative as possible. Day-to-day and their business, they may never have talked once. When we came to holograms, they're like, "We get the business value, we get the technical value, we want to connect those dots together." So, the community was a big part. And then of course you have, like, individual and independent developers out there. You know, the people that are, like, in school. In fact, there's a story-- we had this student, he traded in his, like, tuition money for school to go buy a HoloLens, he was so convinced. And he joined a hackathon we had with one of our customers back in the HoloLens One's days, and he, like, rocked it. I think his team might have gotten first, second place in the hackathon. He went out and he got some, like, internship with the company and later went out to go work with a couple of the partners in the ecosystem. And now he's like his own, and, like, if you go watch him on LinkedIn, he's like a shining beacon of what's possible in the mixed reality space. All because he said, I'm gonna spend whatever the five-grand of his tuition money was on a HoloLens, and to whatever his parents did to support him or not, I-- it was amazing. Like, he made the right decision for him. And there's lots of examples where people, you know, they took a bet, like I said. I mean, those bets could have gone the wrong direction. But thankfully, we knew what we had with them. And we kind of, you know, brought them along for the ride.
It is amazing that-- I mean, if you were, you know, a child of the 80s and 90s you saw how many movies had VR and the future of technology. And the thing that is interesting to me is, like, some of the stuff that was like science fiction is like science reality. And within a couple years, right? And we're only talking-- you know, we've been in market six and a half years with HoloLens, and we're on a v2 product. I mean, what happens when you get the V4, V5? I mean, just, like, the iteration that happens when you continuously improve. And you're already solving these problems today. That the other thing, too. We're doing that today. It's not like we're talking about, oh, the art of the possible for tomorrow. If we could do this today, what happens when we talk about another 10 years from now? What problems are we solving? How much faster are things? How much easier are things where people can, as you pointed out, focus on the things that are important to them?
I was looking and reading about Mesh, and, you know I come from the collaboration industry. I've been spending a lot of time in the last year since COVID talking to people about how bringing everyone home and leveling the playing field into the same environment, the video conferencing environment, has really made, you know, meeting and collaborating more inclusive for people, right? It's brought everybody together. And I've had a lot of people asked me, since this was really noticed-- I'd say about six months into the pandemic-- so how are we going to preserve this after? And to be honest, I haven't been happy with the answers the market has been putting out-- until I saw Mesh. And now I look at Mesh-- and you tell-- I want you to tell me, debunk this or agree with me, tell me what you think. Mesh to me seems like the best and closest way to replicate just that, but in a more engaging environment where we can literally bring everyone to the same level and make meetings, and collaboration, and working together more inclusive. Am I right or wrong with this?
Yeah, I imagine retail's gonna be big for you. All that money, time, and effort that was put into getting people to come into their stores and create those in-store experiences is now being pivoted to virtual. And, I mean, this is a level above what Mesh can do, what MR can do, AR is 10 levels above what they're talking about doing to lure people into digital store fronts now. So, I get that. I want to ask you one more question, back to something you mentioned before. You mentioned entertainment. I think a lot of people when they think about MR, and VR, and AR, they think about gaming and movies, right? They don't think about the applications that we've just spent the whole show talking about. I'm curious if you think that MR and VR will be big in entertainment or not or participate in a holo-novel one day. Or is this technology really destined for commercial and industrial applications only?